[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Market Atmosphere Calm Before the Holiday, Chromium Market Operating Steadily

On September 29, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers were 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); South African high-carbon ferrochrome was offered at 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was offered at 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM.

The ferrochrome market operated steadily during the day. With the National Day holiday approaching, pre-holiday inquiries and transactions remained calm. Market sentiment towards future ferrochrome performance remained relatively optimistic. Amid a tight supply-demand balance, reluctance to budge on prices persisted. However, the stainless steel market was in the doldrums. Pre-holiday stocking demand for the National Day holiday was released to a limited extent. Additionally, recent feedback from some steel mills indicated that actual production might fall short of expectations. Downstream acceptance of high-priced ferrochrome was limited, leading to a slowdown in inquiry and purchase activities. Overall transactions weakened, with most participants adopting a wait-and-see approach for price announcements from other mills. Nevertheless, the September-October peak season continued to exert its effect, sustaining rigid demand for ferrochrome downstream. With a significant reduction in ferrochrome imports, domestic producers actively maintained high production levels. The overall ferrochrome market maintained a slight deficit and a tight balance, supporting stable prices. Recently, South Africa's Minister of Electricity and Energy stated plans to provide a special electricity scheme for the ferrochrome industry, which may stimulate idled or production-cut smelters like Glencore and Samancor to resume operations. Subsequent policy implementation will be closely monitored. In the short term, the ferrochrome market is expected to operate steadily.

Raw material side, on September 29, 2025, spot 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port was offered at 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was offered at 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was offered at 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was offered at 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was offered at 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM. Futures side, 40-42% South African concentrate was offered at $280-284/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was offered at $345-355/mt, flat MoM.

The chrome ore market operated steadily during the day. Most ferrochrome producers had completed raw material stocking. Recent inquiry and purchase activity was mediocre, leading to generally moderate trading activity in the chrome ore spot market, with back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream prevailing. Furthermore, recent concentrated arrivals of chrome ore at ports kept port inventory fluctuating at high levels. Traders faced increased pressure to hold positions, prompting some to slightly lower offers to avoid inventory accumulation risks and to realize funds promptly. However, the healthy operation of the ferrochrome market bolstered chrome ore traders' confidence in the market outlook, sustaining their reluctance to budge on prices, awaiting follow-up actual transactions after the holiday. Futures side, on September 26, a major South African mine raised its offer by $2 to $282/mt, with shipment scheduled before November 15. Overseas miners showed strong willingness to sell, and shipments remained high. In August, chrome ore imports reached 2.0994 million mt, hitting a record high. The emerging supply surplus has gradually dampened domestic traders' purchase willingness, resulting in mediocre actual transaction volumes. However, high planned production of ferrochrome maintains rigid demand for raw material chrome ore. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily, with attention on changes in downstream purchase inquiries in the future.